| Translation of Russian political analyst Alexey | | | | decried as narrow-minded anachronism.Russian |
| Pushkov's article of the same name.Handing over | | | | politicians still argue which party to pattern our |
| power to Vladimir Putin in 1999, Boris Yeltsin | | | | economy and policy on - Europe or the USA. Oh, |
| sought to preserve the political alignment of | | | | but we must pattern them on Russia, the total of |
| forces and coordinates he set during his rule in | | | | its interests! Checking our interests with those of |
| Russia in 1991-1999. The project 'Heir' did not only | | | | other counrties, of course.Sixth. Under Putin the |
| imply selecting a man from Yeltsin's 'camp', but | | | | country's controllability was restored, its slow |
| the one who would preserve the status quo of | | | | desintegration was stopped. When Yeltsin was in |
| the regime. This is indicated, among other things, | | | | office the national republics fell off the Union, |
| by the fact that he insisted on his 'key men' | | | | break-away sentiments appeared in the Chechen, |
| Alexey Voloshin and Mikhail Kasyanov to have the | | | | Tartar and other autonomous republics, even |
| longest possible term in office.However, the | | | | certain Russian regions began to claim autonomy |
| overall results of Putin's five-year office show that | | | | (let us remember the Urals Republic proposed by |
| he has discarded most of Yeltsin's heritage.First of | | | | the Urals governor Eduard Rossel). This process |
| all, he bridged the basic gap of Yeltsin's epoch, the | | | | was slow, but it endangered the country's |
| gap between the left and the right wings. Under | | | | integrity. Meanwhile Yeltsin took the 'gulp as much |
| Yeltsin, there was a continuous struggle between | | | | sovereignty as you can' stance.Zbignev |
| the authority, on the one hand, and the | | | | Bzhezinsky, a well-known American political |
| communists, patriots and socialist-oriented part of | | | | scientist, published a map where Russia was |
| the population, on the other. The country was | | | | divided into three countries: European, Siberian and |
| fevered by constant strife; the State Duma, | | | | Far Eastern. That was his tentative project for |
| where the communists had majority, being in the | | | | Russia. Yes, there was a possibility of such an |
| vanguard of struggle with Yeltsin and the elite, | | | | outcome - take the town of Khasavyurt in |
| could not carry out the legislative process, as their | | | | Dagestan, a part of Russia that was given 5 |
| laws did not suit the executive and were virtually | | | | years' independence. The danger of disintegration |
| directed against the latter.Putin neutralised the left, | | | | is still looming, although the Center is keen on |
| adopting much of their arguments: Russia does | | | | consolidating the country. Putin lifted the national |
| have the acute demographic problem (the low | | | | morale and showed that separatism will not go |
| birth- and high death-rates), the oligarchy | | | | unpunished. He should beware, though, putting too |
| dominance, corruption and weak army. These | | | | much pressure on the national republics and |
| points were taken upon by Putin in his election | | | | divesting them of their rights, as it may cause an |
| program, at least as a rhetoric (in the part of | | | | outburst of nationalism.Seventh. Despite all the |
| olgarchy limitations and army financing they were | | | | drawbacks of the present government, V. Putin |
| put into actual practice). Then, Putin broke the | | | | was able to win back people's trust for public |
| Communists' 'monopoly' on patriotism, thus | | | | authority. There is no trace of 'devilry around the |
| rendering their traditional 'anti-people's regime' rant | | | | throne', so glaring in Yeltsin's time and headed by |
| meaningless.Communists are now heard only | | | | Boris Berezovsky. Even the liberal journalists, who |
| when the authority initiates rash, unprepared and | | | | criticise, sometimes unreservedly, the present |
| ill-grounded laws, like the monetisation of | | | | government, admit that there was a mafia-like |
| perquisites for pensioners - the measure, which | | | | 'family clan' around Yeltsin, which held power in the |
| was not enough elucidated in the press.Secondly, | | | | country. True, there are various factions and |
| the President was able to revamp the pattern of | | | | influential groups, promoting their interests and |
| power and unite the elite. Putin assigned the issues | | | | struggling with each other in today's administration, |
| of economy to liberal democrats, those of | | | | but none of these claim to have entire power, to |
| security - to the military and law enforcement, | | | | be the only decision-makers.Some people say V. |
| and entrusted the administrators who succeeded | | | | Putin's team is not united. Yes, there are |
| in retaining power in later Yeltsin's weakened | | | | controversies in it. But, on the other hand, there is |
| hands with domestic policy. These are all very | | | | no 'family' either. St. Petersburg's representatives |
| different people representing differents parts of | | | | were at first considered more 'close' to the |
| the elite, but to a certain extent united under | | | | President than others, but it was not born out, |
| Putin.Why did the Union of the Right Forces (the | | | | say, Dmitry Kozak, was dispatched to the |
| SPS) lose the recent election? Because it was no | | | | Southern Federal District as the President's |
| longer indispensable: many government officers, | | | | plenipotentiary to deal with the Chechen Republic |
| such as German Gref, Alexey Kudrin, Igor | | | | and terrorism. Under V. Putin the 'office politics' |
| Shuvalov pursue the rightist policy as it is. The | | | | (the code of relations between officials) became |
| perquisites monetisation, drafting the hyperliberal | | | | fundamentally different - meritocracy was |
| Forest Code, cancellation of State Standards for | | | | established.However, there are serious problems |
| pharmaceutical products and even motioning | | | | ahead for Putin. He 'steered the ship about, but |
| prison privatisation are the telltale signs of the | | | | has not set a well-defined course for her'. |
| liberal course in Russia's domestic policy (whether | | | | First. The economy grows largely due to the oil |
| these measures are for the good or for the bad | | | | price rise. Russia hasn't begun forming a |
| is another matter).V. Putin has in his arsenal not | | | | competitive economy - developing high |
| only the leftist, but also the rightist ideas. It is not | | | | technologies, launching large-scale target programs, |
| accidental that Anatoly Chubais tried to throw in | | | | renovating the defense establishments, etc. All |
| the catchphrase 'a liberal empire' to define the | | | | these could only be attained with the participation |
| present political system in Russia - the SPS was | | | | of the state, but it left the economy to its |
| losing its 'property right' for liberal reforms. | | | | devices. The positive dynamics of Russia's |
| Neutralisation of the right wing is the third | | | | economy won't keep, if the oil prices drop.The |
| accomplishment of Putin's office.Fourth. Putin was | | | | economy remains passive: it absorbs enormous |
| able to considerably weaken the influence of big | | | | sums of money and yields 6-7 percent growth, |
| business on the State machinery and policy. Mikhail | | | | but Russia keeps selling its staple raw materials |
| Khodorkovsky made an attempt of directly | | | | and does not work up new foreign markets. |
| converting money into power, like at a bureau de | | | | There is no growth in mechanical engineering |
| change - he offered 15 billion roubles for power in | | | | exports, nor in high tech production. However, the |
| Russia. His plan was frustrated by Putin. Some | | | | competitive strength of an economy is |
| people say, it is not democratic. But did | | | | determined by these two factors, and not by |
| Khodorkovsky act in a democratic way? How | | | | raw materials, but by finished goods. So far |
| were the 15 billion rubles obtained? In general | | | | Russia's economy has not been set for efficiency, |
| terms, does big money entitle a person to power | | | | no innovative breakthrough has been |
| purchase? The history of Russian oligarchy is | | | | made.Second. The situation in Chechnya is much |
| essentially about converting money into power. | | | | more serious than it may seem, and the Chechen |
| Boris Berezovsky and Vladimir Gusinsky were | | | | leader Ahmad Kadyrov's assassination is a heavy |
| doing it through mass media, for example, when | | | | blow to the peace in this region. Though there is |
| in 1996 Gusinsky helped Yeltsin win the elections | | | | no war in the classic sense there, as separatists |
| enlisting the services of the | | | | have no power to 'fight on fronts', Chechnya is |
| establishment-sponsored television channel NTV, it | | | | pervaded with separatist and terrorist agents. |
| was the direct conversion of a media resource | | | | Raids and acts of terrorism still obtain in the |
| into power.Earlier in 1994 Alexander Korzhakov, | | | | region, and even spread to the country at |
| the then Chief of the President's Security Service, | | | | large.Third. Vladimir Putin has not yet created an |
| conducted - by Yeltsin's instructions - the 'mug in | | | | efficient state machine. For example, the events |
| snow' operation against Gusinsky, so that the | | | | in Beslan on September 1-3 2004, when more |
| oligarchs could understand that authority should | | | | than 4,000 children and teachers were held |
| not be conflicted with, but paid off (not | | | | hostage, prove the low efficacy of security |
| necessarily with direct finance). So the oligarchs | | | | service. Under B.Yeltsin the KGB was being |
| began to finance media to brainwash people by | | | | consistently wrecked under pretence of fighting |
| meting out, distorting information, misinforming, | | | | communism (the consequences of this act are |
| launching media attacks as a punishment for public | | | | not yet fully overcome). Yet not one democratic |
| figures, orchestrating public opinion, spin control | | | | state could manage without strong security |
| and fixing elections... For such services | | | | services, what was really needed is to reform the |
| Berezovsky even obtained an office in the | | | | former Soviet intelligence.Fourth. Russia should |
| government - he became deputy secretary of | | | | vindicate its positions in foreign policy with more |
| the Security Council and was responsible for the | | | | firmness. American politicians spoke to me |
| Chechen issues (a glaring absurdity from today's | | | | (Alexey Pushkov) about the surprise Russia's |
| perspective!).Berezovsky and Gusinsky believed | | | | refusal to back the war in Iraq caused with the |
| that Yeltsin's apointee Vladimir Putin would let | | | | US administration. Why did Russia give an |
| them play their games as before. They were | | | | impression that it could be counted on in any |
| baulked in their plans. However, certain agressive | | | | matter, or that it shouldn't be reckoned with? |
| representatives of big business persisted in their | | | | Because it had settled for anything the USA was |
| struggle for power - the inertia of complete | | | | doing, be it the withdrawal from the Anti-Missile |
| license was too strong, the sense of omnipotence | | | | Defence Treaty (the Russian government's |
| struck root. 'We would beat Yeltsin all the same - | | | | comment: 'a deplorable error') or the second |
| while he had been learning to play domino, we had | | | | round of the NATO expansion. The US |
| mastered chess', said Leonid Nevzlin, a | | | | administration overestimated its influence on |
| businessman and public relations expert. Mikhail | | | | Moscow, but it was Russia who gave cause for |
| Khodorkovsky's logic was of the same strain: the | | | | this, adopting a policy too 'comfortable' for the |
| sense of exclusiveness prompted him to attempt | | | | USA.Unfortunately, many features of Yeltsin's |
| to use financial clout and gain control over the | | | | administration devolved on that of Putin. The lack |
| State Duma and the Federation Council, thus | | | | of publicity in legislature is one of them. We are |
| becoming the 'power broker', de facto leader of | | | | faced with political reforms, which come as if out |
| the country. That splendid coup was thwarted - | | | | of the blue - nobody has taken the trouble to |
| Putin's government wouldn't play either domino or | | | | explain their essence and prove their necessity. |
| chess with Khodorkovsky, it simply upturned the | | | | This is said to be the traditional Russian |
| table. Some say it wasn't nice or fair. Perhaps. But | | | | authoritarian style of administration. But bad |
| it was not fair play on the part of Khodorkovsky | | | | traditions should be changed, unless the |
| in the first place.Khodorkovsky's political failure as | | | | government is willing to stand aloof from its |
| the failure of converting money into power was | | | | people.The main dangers impending over Putin's |
| logical. Yeltsin depended on the oligarchs, as he | | | | administration are as follows.The first is the |
| had no other 'point of rest', being politically and | | | | situation in Chechnya. The efficiency of Putin's |
| physically infirm, unpopular, and undergoing | | | | policy largely depends on his ability to settle the |
| persistent pressure from the left wing. | | | | Chechen conflict. If the 'vertical of power' built by |
| Contrariwise, Putin is popular; he succeeded in | | | | him does not yield fruit in that region, he will fail to |
| uniting the elite and was able to move away from | | | | convince the country in the necessity of exerting |
| the oligarchs.Some political scientists maintain that | | | | control. It is precisely the issue of Chechnya that |
| the restriction of big business power is wrong, as | | | | will be the touchstone of Putin's policy, both in |
| it entails the omnipotent power of State | | | | Russia and internationally. The Chechen war and |
| bureaucracy. True, the official powers should be | | | | terror became Putin's gravest challenges, which |
| counterbalanced, otherwise the State becomes | | | | demand the consolidation of power, strengthening |
| overpowering (this was Russia's permanent | | | | of the State, and in some cases, turning the |
| political bane, but the country needed it because | | | | screw. But if the screws are tight, and the vehicle |
| of its size, climate and a number of other | | | | does not move, the question of the adequacy of |
| factors). But Yeltsin's immoral big business is not | | | | such a policy will arise.The second danger (more |
| the kind of counterbalance the community needs. | | | | prominent during his second term in office) is the |
| While Russia was historically better off unter total | | | | appearance of consolidated opposition. It includes |
| power, the oligarchs would retain it, but make it | | | | the liberal politicians who lost the election in the |
| inhuman and anti-national - even more | | | | Duma, but have a solid support of big business, |
| unscrupulous, mercenary and corrupt. State | | | | their own financial resources, and a substantial |
| totalitarianism would turn into oligarchal | | | | backing from abroad. They are eager to score |
| totalitarianism. There was but imitation of | | | | political points using the government's mistakes. |
| democracy under Yeltsin, but if Khodorkovsky | | | | For example, against the logic of their liberal |
| could have gained power, the political | | | | market views, they are attacking the |
| pseudodemocracy might have turned into | | | | monetisation of perquisites for pensioners. They |
| oligarchal pseudodemocracy, with its arsenal of | | | | are doing it, because the authority is vulnerable in |
| manupulative and venal media. The restriction of | | | | this poorely prepared reform. The next power |
| oligarchal influence on the policy and strategy of | | | | standing in opposition to Putin is the 'exiled' |
| the State is necessary. Giving a resolute check to | | | | oligarchs. Berezovsky, Gusinsky, Nevzlin are |
| Khodorkovsky's plans, Putin made him understand | | | | people with resources, and have connections in |
| that individuals (even very rich ones) cannot | | | | the West. Berezovsky is quite frank in saying that |
| dictate the policy to the State.Fifth. Putin | | | | his principal goal is to weaken Putin's regime. Then, |
| proclaimed the foreign policy based on national | | | | the government is opposed by certain liberal |
| priorities. Under Yeltsin it was based on absolutely | | | | media (which include several central TV channels |
| different principles: the first postulate was that | | | | of Russia), especially their aggressive part backed |
| Russia should at all costs become the part of | | | | by the oppositional big business. A part of national |
| civilised world, implying the West; the second was | | | | and regional elite, displeased at the decision that |
| that Russia has no national interests basically | | | | regional governors be appointed by the President |
| different from those of the USA; the third was | | | | (and apprehending the restoration of the unitarian |
| that Russia should completely reject the use of | | | | state), may also join the opposition. A part of |
| force in solving its political problems, as it is | | | | liberal intelligentsia and the communists joining the |
| 'undemocratic'.Over the past 10 years we have | | | | liberals on certain points also swing against the |
| seen other nations solve their problems by | | | | administration. Finally, the anti-Russian and |
| various methods, including, alas, the use of force | | | | anti-Putin forces in the West are also opposed to |
| as, for instance, in Bosnia or in Iraq.We also | | | | Putin. All the mentioned forces are, however, |
| realised, that the course of equating Russia's | | | | largely outnumbered by Putin's supporters (in |
| political interests with those of US or EU is not | | | | Russia the ratio is about one to ten). |
| absolutely correct. Putin agreed with the USA in | | | | Nevertheless, they should be reckoned with.Putin |
| the crucial issue of fighting terrorism, but he made | | | | has few propagandists of his ideas and proposals. |
| it clear that our countries' views on some other | | | | He himself has to explain his home and foreign |
| issues differ. He is not afraid to say that Russia | | | | policy, the ideas of his political reforms. His press |
| has inherent interests in the countries of the CIS | | | | secretaries and information services keep silence, |
| (Commonwealth of Independent States), even if | | | | although it is their duty to compete with the huge |
| it may annoy some political parties abroad. | | | | bulk of anti-Putin propaganda. The system lacks |
| However, the practical realisation of Russia's | | | | people with active ideological and political thinking, |
| national interests may be impeded by two | | | | capable of supporting its plans and decisions. And |
| factors: the cosmopolitan character of big | | | | this is in the face of strong opposition, nostalgic |
| business and the 'anational' mentality of the | | | | for Yeltsin's Russia - weak, docile, corrupt, and |
| younger generation of Russians, formed during | | | | disintegrating.However, if the efficiency of |
| the past 10 years.'Paying taxes is our only duty, | | | | administration rises, the economy grows, the |
| and we owe nobody but God and our conscience', | | | | opposition will have to bear Putin's 'authoritarian |
| Peter Aven, a business and media tycoon, said in | | | | liberalism'. Conversely, if there are no tangible |
| his interview. Yes, but if an individual knows | | | | results, he will be accused of sacrificing |
| neither God nor conscience? Why should big | | | | democracy. Putin must prove that his model is |
| business detach itself from the rest of the nation? | | | | efficient.The period of authoritarian development is |
| Russia's big business is essentially cosmopolitan, | | | | inevitable. The liberals condemn Putin's policy as |
| not to say anti-national.As for the 'anational' | | | | restoration, but restoration is a normal practice |
| mentality, it becomes apparent from the fact that | | | | for any country after a sharp 'side slip'. If a nation |
| younger people, even those whose major at | | | | loses capacity for correcting its 'side slips', it may, |
| universities is political science, sometimes question | | | | like a car, roll over at a sharp turn of history. |
| the necessity of Russia's 'special attutude' towards | | | | Restoration is the nation's adaptation to new |
| certain issues. 'Why don't we just trim ourselves | | | | conditions, its self-regulation, aligning a car after a |
| to the US position?', they ask. The notion of | | | | drastic side slip. |
| 'national interests', as well as patriotism, has been | | | | |