| I would like to discuss conference play in the | | | | Another angle is homecoming in college football. |
| NCAA. At my company we concentrate on four | | | | Teams rise to the occasion, especially weaker |
| conferences and we find ample opportunity in | | | | teams that are playing a top team in conference |
| these conference matchups each and every | | | | action. When this scenario occurs you usually have |
| week. Not unlike NFL football where there is a ton | | | | a double-digit home dog, and there is value in this |
| of information and trends we use when teams | | | | situation against the line. |
| play in their own division for the 2nd time around. | | | | There are revenge factors from the previous |
| In this article today I will let you in on a few | | | | years meeting that you need to explore, and also |
| secrets of the trade I have used that have made | | | | there are allot of intra-state rivalries. A good |
| myself and my clients over the years a great | | | | example of this is the Texas and Oklahoma game |
| deal of unit gains using these simple, yet effective | | | | every year. Both these teams have been battling |
| methods. | | | | in this contest, called the Red River War, for a |
| The key to success in any endeavor is | | | | long time. There is a huge emphasis on this game |
| specialization. There are a ton of games on the | | | | at both schools. It even takes on more |
| board each week, and while I take a close look at | | | | importance now that both teams are in the Big 12 |
| them all, I find that concentrating your efforts on | | | | Southern division. The underdog in this series going |
| a finite number of teams helps you better know | | | | into this year's game was 10-5 ATS the last 15. |
| the trends and tendencies of each team in given | | | | Until Bob Stoops took over this OU team, the |
| scenarios. Let us take a look at a few items that | | | | underdog was 9-2 ATS. OU has owned Mac |
| will help you. Schools like Nebraska, Ohio State, | | | | Brown and Texas but as the gap gets narrower, |
| Michigan, Florida State and in years past Notre | | | | the spread is getting wider, as OU was favored 4 |
| Dame and Penn State always carry inflated lines | | | | 1/2 in 2004 and won by over 40 points. This |
| against weak sisters in conference action. More | | | | game is circled every year on my schedule |
| times than not they cover those numbers, but | | | | because oddsmakers make it a tight line, yet OU |
| there are exceptions when there is opportunity. A | | | | is dominating the series the last 4 years, and I am |
| key for me has been to look ahead on the | | | | finding opportunity with this series. In 2005, when |
| schedule and see whom they are playing next | | | | Texas was on their way to winning a national title, |
| week. There is parity in college football. Most | | | | REVENGE was apparent, and they laid a HUGE |
| every team has talent, 300-pound lineman, guys | | | | number in this game, and covered with ease, thus |
| that can hit like a freight train, and wideouts and | | | | folloing trends and knowing revnege factors paid |
| running backs that can run 4.3 - 40 yard dashes. | | | | HUGE dividends. My Game of the Year 3 out of |
| If any given team is not ready and prepared to | | | | last 4 years has come out of this game and I |
| play a game, they can be beat, and most | | | | have cashed them all! That is 12 Units of winners |
| assuredly cannot cover a big number. An example | | | | out of 1 conference game in 3 years of unloading |
| would be in the first week of this season in 2000 | | | | on it. |
| when Nebraska laid 50 points to San Jose State | | | | When you are either handicapping professionally |
| and did not come close to covering the number. | | | | like myself, or doing it on your own, sometimes |
| Guess who they had on the schedule the next | | | | you can over analyze games and get to a point |
| week? They played Notre Dame. In conference | | | | where you cannot see the forest because of all |
| action when you have an Ohio State playing | | | | the trees! I am more of a situational analysis type |
| Michigan, take a good look at who they are | | | | of handicapper, and sometimes you find |
| playing the week before. If they are playing a | | | | opportunity against the spread by looking at the |
| weak sister in their conference, I can bet you a | | | | simple things that it does not take a rocket |
| dime to a dollar they are laying a big number, | | | | scientist to figure out. Use these simple techniques |
| even on the road, and chances are better than | | | | for your college football handicapping and you will |
| not they are looking ahead and will not cover. | | | | be units ahead at the end of the season. |