| My specialty conference is back for the 15th year | | | | they should be able to grind it out and mix it up, |
| in a row in the handicapping business. Going 66% | | | | and with some good QB play, will make some |
| ATS in 2005 in the Big 12 overall in football, and | | | | strides. |
| 68% with Big 12 Bowl teams last year, | | | | On defense this team was awesome in 2005, and |
| specialization is truly to the key to success. With a | | | | then they lose 7 starters from a unit that was |
| 63% lifetime ATS record in this conference, I | | | | hard to run against and did not give up big plays |
| look for numerous opportunities again in 2006 | | | | all season with the exception of Texas. Having to |
| from this conference. First up, my Big 12 North | | | | replace all 3 starters at linebacker and having only |
| report, where my beloved Huskers (I am from | | | | 1 returner in the secondary playing the type of |
| Lincoln, NE), look to regain their national stature as | | | | teams they have to this season, especially on the |
| in years past as the transition period with | | | | road at Nebraska and Iowa State is a huge |
| ex-Raider head coach Bill Callahan is now complete | | | | concern, and I look for them to get lit up by good |
| and many pieces to the puzzle are filled in for | | | | throwing teams this season, so stick that in your |
| Nebraska, including a come from behind Alamo | | | | record keeping book. They have solid special |
| Bowl win last year in dramatic fashion over Big 10 | | | | teams and momentum coming into 2006 and |
| powerhouse Michigan. Some changes are in the | | | | Mark Mangino is one of the most underrated |
| wind in the Big 12 North with Bill Snyder out at | | | | coaches in the Big 12, many remember him as |
| Kansas State and Gary Barnett gone at Colorado, | | | | the offensive coordinator for Oklahoma when |
| which was long overdue. Lets rank it and break it | | | | they won their first national title under Bob |
| down for 2006, from first to worst in the Big 12 | | | | Stoops. Look for a respectable season with 4 to |
| North. | | | | 5 losses and some tight games, these guys will be |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers | | | | a dangerous underdog, especially with some big |
| A return to national prominence is in order for | | | | numbers their way. |
| Nebraska as Bill Callahan's West Coast offense is | | | | Missouri |
| settling in at Nebraska, as evidenced by a national | | | | A tight call between the bottom 3 in the North, |
| ranking of 107th, an unheard of number for the | | | | but out of K-State and Colorado, both of which |
| Nebraska rushing record charts, as the Huskers | | | | have new coaches and systems, I'll lean towards |
| load option offense is long gone and the passing | | | | Gary Pinkel's Tiger squad to remain tough in 2006, |
| game, led by all world QB Zac Taylor, who set | | | | despite losing all world QB Brad Smith, who was |
| numerous school records in passing in 2005, is at | | | | about 75% of the offense for Missouri for the |
| the forefront again in 2006. Passing for over 2600 | | | | past 3 years. Some depth on offense and some |
| yards in 2005, weathering 38 sacks, Zac Taylor is | | | | tough games at home, along with some excellent |
| the KEY for Nebraska in 2006, and he is a cool | | | | coaching has me liking Missouri this year as a |
| customer in the pocket, and this guy is a gamer | | | | spoiler late in the season. |
| and leader with experience under his belt, and a | | | | On offense the QB position goes to Chase Daniel, |
| monster bowl win too boot. Overall Nebraska | | | | a solid player and replacement for Brad Smith. He |
| returns many starters as well on defense, which | | | | has some mobility and can run the spread option |
| led the nation in QB sacks in 2005, with potential | | | | offense to a great degree, although his 6'0" size is |
| All-American Adam Carriker at end leading the | | | | a concern if he takes too many shots. He was |
| way. | | | | the player of the year at QB in Texas running |
| On offense the question mark is running back, as | | | | almost the same style offense and can make big |
| 3 year starter Cory Ross is gone and it looks like | | | | plays. The Tigers are deep at RB, but the position |
| running back by committee for the Huskers with | | | | is open between Woods and Temple, but |
| young talent in the wings as I look for both Cody | | | | incoming frosh sensation Connell Davis is on the |
| Glenn (power back) and Marlon Lucky (speed | | | | radar screen, and they are high on him to |
| back) to excel with Brandon Jackson as a utility | | | | contribute this fall. The offensive line replaces only |
| back, and all 3 can catch the ball out of the | | | | 1 player and are solid and the WR unit is decent, |
| backfield. Getting former All-Big 12 first teamer | | | | and deep at the tight end position as well. Overall |
| Matt Herrian back at tight end is a HUGE plus for | | | | they should be able to put up some points and |
| Nebraska here, off a year out with a knee injury, | | | | run it well with the depth they have, but an |
| and there are plenty of young receivers out there | | | | unproven QB in a complicated system is going to |
| and some upcoming talent to add depth to this | | | | take some time here. |
| position, Nate Swift being the go to guy again this | | | | On defense the Tigers return 7 players and they |
| year along with Terrance Nunn. The offensive line | | | | should be able to make some stands this season, |
| is solid and deep led by center Kurt Mann, and | | | | as they will be tough against the run, with a |
| improved play here is crucial as they allowed 38 | | | | strong front 4, and some strong play at |
| sacks in 2005. Expect this team to average 25-28 | | | | linebacker. David Overstreet at safety is all-Big 12 |
| ppg on offense this year. They could be explosive | | | | material, and led the team with tackles in 2005, |
| and Callahan takes chances to make big plays, so | | | | but he has no help as all 3 cover corners |
| I expect this unit to be better than ever under | | | | graduated. Expect opposing teams to expose a |
| this system in 2006. | | | | weak secondary this season, and Missou has to |
| On defense look for a stiff unit this year. The | | | | find some replacements quickly as not to get lit |
| ability to rush the passer and some good | | | | up early in games and be expected to trade |
| defensive back play led by Zach Bowman, the | | | | punches with the likes of Nebraska and Iowa |
| Huskers return the 10th best defense against the | | | | State on offense. A 5-loss season is not out of |
| pass last year in full strength and the linebackers | | | | the question, but with games against Nebraska |
| are deep are solid. With a solid pass rush and a | | | | and Iowa State on the road in consecutive |
| great LB unit, and the ability to rush the passer, | | | | weeks, and road trips to Texas AM and Texas |
| this unit will be the strong point of the Huskers | | | | Tech in back to back weeks as well, Brad Smith |
| and allow the offense a short field more times | | | | will be missed and the Tigers will struggle this |
| than not. With solid special teams and excellent | | | | season to get another bowl bid, after winning a |
| speed with return guys, the Huskers are a | | | | bowl game last year against South Carolina |
| complete team with confidence in 2006. | | | | coming from behind by 21 points behind QB Smith. |
| Scheduling is a problem as the Huskers are the | | | | A learning curve year this year and a brutal road |
| only team in the USA to play both teams, Texas | | | | schedule in store. They called for Pinkels job last |
| and USC, from the BCS Championship game in | | | | year at times in Columbia, and that might be the |
| 2005. Traveling to USC will be tough for their 3rd | | | | case again in Tigerland, the natives are restless |
| game of the season and their first road trip, but | | | | and thought they would contend during Brad |
| they do get Texas in Lincoln later in the season | | | | Smith's years there, so allot of pressure is on the |
| so that will be a huge showdown and possible Big | | | | coaching staff to get to a bowl again. |
| 12 championship game preview. A tough road test | | | | Colorado |
| at pesky Iowa State is also a concern and will be | | | | After a ton of on field and off field scandals, Gary |
| a big game for Nebraska. If they can go 2-1 | | | | Barnett was finally fired, and Boise State head |
| somehow in those 3 games, beating Iowa State | | | | coach Dan Hawkins was hired. A great coach, but |
| on the road, look for a sweep of the Big 12 | | | | Colorado's problems are 2-fold. A new offensive |
| North, a 2 to 3 loss season with a major bowl bid | | | | system, totally different than what they used to, |
| in 2006. Not a national title contender next, but a | | | | and replacing a great QB in Joel Klatt. Not a small |
| force out of the Big 12 for sure in 2006. | | | | task and the talent level, especially for this'd type |
| Iowa State | | | | of offensive scheme, is lacking and it is totally a |
| This is a tough call with Kansas looking to have a | | | | rebuilding year for Colorado without question. |
| good year, but QB Brett Meyer is at the helm for | | | | They are excited about Buffalo football, they had |
| the Cyclones, and he is a talented and dangerous | | | | over 60,000 in attendance for the Spring game, |
| guy, who will make big plays and win games for | | | | but the fact remains that talent is low and the |
| the Cyclones in 2006. Iowa State returns 9 | | | | new system will take some time. |
| players from a productive offense, which will be | | | | On offense there is a struggle at QB right now, |
| the strength of this team, and only 4 starters | | | | but it looks like Brian White gets the job, a drop |
| return on defense, which is a huge concern in | | | | back passer type, with Bernard Jackson close |
| Ames this season. They ended the season with a | | | | behind, as more of a scrambler type QB, but in |
| loss to TCU in the Houston Bowl and had losses | | | | this offensive system, a pure passer is what |
| at Kansas and Nebraska last year on the road, | | | | coach Hawkins wants. This position is unsettled |
| both in overtime, and losing to Baylor in Ames | | | | and could change, which is not a good plan with a |
| was embarrassing to say the least. | | | | new scheme. The WR unit is above average and |
| On offense, this team is as good as any in the | | | | the tight ends are respectable, but the caliber of |
| Big 12 North, and maybe the Big 12, with QB | | | | receiver needed for this spread offense is not on |
| Meyer being a talented and versatile player, who | | | | campus right now, although Dusty Sprague is |
| can also scramble with the best of them. A | | | | capable of making some plays and will be the go |
| talented WR unit led by all-Big 12 performer Todd | | | | to guy. A serious learning curve here, and I |
| Blythe, and a running game headed up by RB | | | | expect turnovers to be a large part of Colorado's |
| Steven Hicks, this unit will produce ONLY if | | | | problems in 2006. The running game is solid with |
| Barney Cotton, offensive coordinator, cuts loose | | | | Hugh Charles, who is a dangerous back and will |
| QB Meyers and lets him roam. In any sense of | | | | work well in this system. He is no doubt |
| the word, this is a dual threat unit, with a deep | | | | Colorado's biggest offensive threat behind an line |
| offensive line and talent at every skill position, and | | | | that has to learn zone blocking, so hopefully they |
| they will put up some points and have quick strike | | | | can open some holes to keep defense's honest. |
| capability. Look for Brett Meyers to have a | | | | On defense they return 6 starters, the strength |
| standout season as a senior this season, he is a | | | | being the linebacker unit led by Jordon Dizon. The |
| difference maker. | | | | line is suspect and inexperienced and the |
| The defense is a major concern here with only 4 | | | | secondary is also suspect but they do have depth |
| starters remaining from last years unit, and pass | | | | and a solid cover corner in McKay. This team got |
| defense is a serious question mark, and all 3 | | | | destroyed 70-3 in the Big 12 championship, and |
| linebackers are first year starters, and all but 1 in | | | | lost to Clemson is a bowl game. After all that, and |
| the secondary graduated, but DeAndre Jackson is | | | | losing their best player and leader on offense, and |
| a stud in man-to-man coverage. All in all there will | | | | their head coach, Colorado is not a contender in |
| be a learning curve and some inexperience here, | | | | the Big 12 north this season and will look to the |
| but the offense is powerful enough to make up | | | | future. They travel to Georgia, Nebraska, and |
| some lost ground, and I expect a ton of high | | | | Oklahoma this year, I do not expect them to |
| scoring games when the Cyclones play this year, | | | | contend in any of those games and have a losing |
| so look to the Totals Play with these guys, | | | | season this season. A go against team on the |
| especially in the low 40's number. Beating Iowa | | | | road against a defensive team without question. |
| last year 23-3, and now having to play them in | | | | Kansas State |
| Iowa City will be a true test for the Hawkeye's | | | | After Bill Snyder's turnaround of the century with |
| who always give their in-state rivals trouble, but a | | | | the Kansas State Wildcats, his era is over, as he |
| trip the Texas the following week will be a brutal | | | | retired last year and in steps Ron Prince from |
| early season road stretch. They get Nebraska, | | | | Virginia, where he was the offensive |
| Texas Tech and Kansas all at home this year as | | | | coodordinator, and at age 36, and he has some |
| well as Missouri to end the season, so a 3 loss | | | | big shoes to fill, with little talent to work with in |
| season is not out of the question for Iowa State | | | | 2006 for his west coast scheme. A tough job to |
| and they should contend with Nebraska and for | | | | say the least, and they might be able to contend |
| the top spot, and having Kansas, who will be a | | | | with Colorado for the next to the bottom spot |
| contender, at home avenging a OT loss last year | | | | here with some luck. They have a chance to win |
| is also a plus. A 9-3 or 8-4 season and a bowl bid | | | | their first 3 games against weak sisters, but a 6 |
| for the Cyclones is on tap. | | | | to 7 loss season is not out of the question here |
| Kansas | | | | with games against Colorado, Kansas and Missouri |
| Many think this is the year of the Jayhawks, as | | | | all on the road. |
| they made HUGE strides in 2005, beating both | | | | A Quarterback question between Meir and Webb |
| Iowa State and Nebraska along with hated rival | | | | will be answered this fall, both are talented in |
| Missouri in 2005, with lesser talent than they have | | | | different ways, but I expect to see Webb make |
| now, but the revenge factor in the Big 12 is huge | | | | the start, as he can scramble and make bigger |
| and all 3 of those games will be played on the | | | | plays. The Wildcats landed one of the best QB's in |
| road, and I do not see KU winning any of them, | | | | America, from rival Nebraska at the last minute, |
| although Missouri is suspect and always the | | | | and I expect Josh Freeman out of Grandview |
| biggest game of the year for KU. Coming off a | | | | MIssouri to make the top 3 here and be groomed |
| Ft. Worth Bowl win, blowing out Houston 42-13 | | | | to be a top QB in the country, so seeing a true |
| was huge boost to Mark Mangino's squad and | | | | freshman at years end start will not surprise me. |
| they look to build on last season's success with | | | | At running back, they have 3 guys led by Alsup |
| only 9 returning starters, which is my biggest | | | | and Clayton and are solid here. The line is |
| concern overall with Kansas, and that is depth and | | | | inexperienced but good, they were nailed huge |
| talent at skill positions. A rash of injuries would | | | | last year by injury, so expect them to be better, |
| devastate this team, which is why I have them in | | | | but unproven. A west coast style offense is going |
| 3rd place overall. | | | | to be used and they have some good WR's here, |
| On offense the QB position has been announced | | | | but the west coast offense is tough to learn and |
| and after a great spring game, Kerry Meier is the | | | | mistakes will be made, just ask Nebraska about |
| man. He is a scrambler and has a strong and | | | | that. |
| accurate arm, with plenty of depth behind him at | | | | On defense the Wildcats have a few great |
| QB as well if he falls to injury. Jon Cornish is | | | | players here with Archer at LB and Watts in the |
| touted as a 1000 yard back this season and | | | | secondary, both are all -Big12 type guys, but this |
| behind a better than average offensive line, and | | | | defense returns 8 starters from a unit that |
| with the threat of a vertical passing game, they | | | | allowed over 350 yards per game last year. The |
| should be consistent on the ground. As mentioned, | | | | line is unproven and a weak point, and teams will |
| the offensive line is soiled with all 5 starters | | | | be able to spread them out and run on them. This |
| returning. The key is the passing game, a good | | | | is a below average unit that will give up points, |
| QB but no one to throw to, but TE Derek Fine | | | | and with a new scheme on offense and a learning |
| was the go to guy in the spring game, which I | | | | curve here, look for K-State to have a bad year |
| was present at, and he will be a huge part of | | | | in 2006, and a go against team in big games, as |
| their offense, especially in key 3rd down | | | | they simply do not have the defense to keep |
| situations. Not an explosive team on offense, but | | | | them in games. |